Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 1.973657 2.084728 2.201191 2.332839 2.478042 2.633907 2.814675
2025-06-29 1.784419 1.934786 2.099591 2.295099 2.522670 2.781711 3.102580
2025-07-06 1.652238 1.821782 2.013045 2.247420 2.530643 2.866980 3.304813
2025-07-13 1.591309 1.780272 1.998893 2.274693 2.619662 3.046122 3.629101
2025-07-20 1.546626 1.752016 1.994910 2.309327 2.715096 3.235904 3.982376
2025-07-27 1.510065 1.729548 1.994222 2.344933 2.810857 3.430631 4.361379
2025-08-03 1.456454 1.682224 1.958594 2.331546 2.838581 3.532956 4.617436
2025-08-10 1.408220 1.638590 1.924364 2.316369 2.860630 3.626435 4.868173
2025-08-17 1.361552 1.594409 1.886608 2.293210 2.868377 3.697720 5.090119
2025-08-24 1.318685 1.553019 1.850122 2.268953 2.871666 3.760821 5.304214
2025-08-31 1.289622 1.528058 1.833731 2.270759 2.911621 3.881534 5.630696
2025-09-07 1.268148 1.511916 1.827977 2.286469 2.972173 4.038573 6.043958
2025-09-14 1.229313 1.471973 1.789112 2.253943 2.959042 4.077641 6.248346
2025-09-21 1.191931 1.432756 1.749757 2.218748 2.939425 4.104008 6.432198
2025-09-28 1.153477 1.390862 1.705145 2.173654 2.901258 4.095120 6.542568
2025-10-05 1.141437 1.384103 1.708752 2.199457 2.976557 4.288594 7.111308
2025-10-12 1.132410 1.380961 1.717018 2.232208 3.064779 4.513661 7.800371
2025-10-19 1.124131 1.378426 1.725815 2.265859 3.156446 4.754925 8.590667
2025-10-26 1.102142 1.356148 1.705410 2.253209 3.168447 4.844798 9.023675
2025-11-02 1.080786 1.334133 1.684600 2.238864 3.176347 4.926982 9.457168
2025-11-09 1.058265 1.309878 1.659737 2.216969 3.169487 4.978441 9.818451
2025-11-16 1.036482 1.286122 1.634885 2.194028 3.159298 5.021903 10.168939
2025-11-23 1.022647 1.273266 1.625663 2.195736 3.193391 5.161896 10.860215